HVAC

Published September 15, 2026

Effective September 15, 2026

High-efficiency all-electric HVAC systems continue to be a priority for CalNEXT. This includes maturing products such as high-efficiency air-to-air packaged heat pumps as well as less mature product markets, like air-to-water heat pumps intended for gas boiler replacements. CalNEXT is also focused on deploying scalable HVAC solutions and advancing decarbonization design strategies that target the commercial and large multi-family sectors.

 

Research Initiatives Key

The Research Initiatives tables below describe the most important topic areas these technology research areas should be focused on, and the simplified icons indicate where the topic areas stand along the path of progression to technology transfer. The tables are meant to encourage research projects to fill the current gaps and advance the topic areas on the technology transfer path of progression.

High Needs

High Needs

Medium Needs

Medium Needs

Low Needs

Low Needs

Future Needs

Future Needs

2026 Technology Research Areas

Priority

Room Heat Pumps

High

CalNEXT has highlighted this technology family as having high impacts within the Technology Category.

Definition

Room heat pumps are efficient, rapidly deployable heat pumps (HPs) that can be installed without the need for professional HVAC and electrical skills. They are suitable for compact spaces where HPs can replace electric space heaters or where traditional split systems are costly or onerous to deploy. They should connect with standard 110V/120V National Electrical Manufacturers Association 5-15 outlets, without any field-installed refrigerant lines. They can appear in the market in several form factors such as saddle (also referred to as U-shaped), window box units, portable, and through-the-wall. Saddle, window, and portable units are generally do-it-yourself, while others—including through-the-wall—may require infrastructure costs. Typical uses include single-family, accessory dwelling units, multifamily situations, mobile homes, hospitality spaces, assisted living facilities, and schools. Unit condensate is managed through drip-free meltwater atomization or water dispersion into air, inside or outside, and drip pan systems for portable units.

 

Research Initiatives
Research InitiativesPerformance Validation NeedsMarket Analysis NeedsMeasure Development NeedsProgram Development Needs
Window/Saddle HPsHigh NeedsMedium NeedsHigh NeedsMedium Needs
Portable HPsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsHigh NeedsMedium Needs
Through-the-wall HPs (PTHPs/SPVHP)Medium NeedsLow NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs

 

Opportunities

Room HPs have the potential to rapidly electrify space heating, replacing existing portable space heaters and older, less efficient room air conditioners with more efficient HPs. As these products become more widely available, they offer various opportunities. For example:

  • Room HPs can provide options for energy efficient cooling to customers who do not currently have air conditioning.
  • This technology family may be especially important for disadvantaged communities and hard-to-reach customers, where the majority of households are renters with limited options to improve their electrical or HVAC infrastructure by way of 120V plug-in options.
  • Customer usage patterns can help inform the real-world efficiency and electrification potential of these products:
    • Ease of self-installation and customer satisfaction.
    • Cost and performance compared to central HPs.
    • Value-add to residential space when changing tenants and portability if moving is required.
    • In-field performance testing of the units may be of particular interest to validate issues such as noise, defrost and dehumidification, and ventilation and air-filtration.
    • Verify value to consumer in sell ownership and portability when moving.

 

Barriers

Barriers may include the following:

  • Implementation barriers, including product usage patterns, customer sentiment, and understanding overall market awareness.
  • Installation practices, including identifying common installation challenges. For example, the setting of the outdoor air damper position, sealing around the unit, decommissioning existing equipment, and thermostat control setting—especially to avoid conflict with controls of central systems—may be challenging.
  • Evaluate the extent to which room HPs overcome the split-incentive issue in rental properties by allowing the technology to be owned by the tenant rather than the building owner; this would be a measure barrier, as there is an immediate need to account for equipment moving out of the IOU territories.
  • A general lack of awareness, including uncertainty around reliability, performance, and long-term savings. There is also a related lack of strong local or community support and education.
  • Room HPs are not currently included as standard measures in mainstream low-income programs, such as PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E’s Energy Savings Assistance programs or the Low-Income Weatherization program.
  • Room HP costs may still be a significant barrier when replacing regular window box air-conditioning-only units—especially for some more expensive types, such as saddle room heat pumps and cold climate versions.

 

CalNEXT Related Projects

Commercial Air-to-Air Heat Pumps in Existing Buildings

High

CalNEXT has highlighted this technology family as having high impacts within the Technology Category.

Definition

This category includes commercial air-to-air heat pump equipment with over 65,000 British thermal units per hour (Btu/h) cooling capacity (5.4 tons) or smaller-capacity rooftop units (RTUs), serving commercial spaces and capable of providing both space cooling and heating. Commercial air-to-air heat pump equipment includes split and packaged units. Common examples of air-to-air heat pumps include variable refrigerant flow (VRF), dedicated outdoor air systems, and heat pump RTUs. Other technologies that are considered part of this technology family include those that complement heat pump systems, such as improved control systems.

 

Research Initiatives
Research InitiativesPerformance Validation NeedsMarket Analysis NeedsMeasure Development NeedsProgram Development Needs
Heat Pump RTUs: Controls and InfrastructureHigh NeedsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs
Efficient Mechanical Ventilation StrategiesMedium NeedsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsMedium Needs

VRF System Optimization for Efficiency

High NeedsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs

Strategies for Reducing Reliance on Supplementary Electric Resistance Heat

High NeedsHigh NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs

Note: The heat pump refrigerant maintenance topic is noted in the “Commercial HVAC Equipment Installation, Operation, and Maintenance” technology family.

 

Opportunities

The increased adoption of commercial air-to-air HP equipment represents a significant opportunity for energy efficiency and decarbonization of the HVAC energy end use in commercial buildings. Opportunities for increased system efficiency and decarbonization include:

  • Tailoring intervention strategies for the different market types; for example, planned capital improvements vs. emergency replacements.
  • Understanding air-source heat pump equipment retrofit feasibility by region, building type, baseline system, and market type.
  • Optimizing operation and control strategies of packaged equipment.
  • Reducing reliance on supplemental heating systems.
  • Modeling and evaluating HVAC systems in-field on efficiency and performance, including readily available system equipment and components.

 

Barriers

Addressing barriers to HP adoption will increase uptake of HPs in the commercial HVAC market. Examples of barriers to increased adoption include:

  • Distributor stocking practices focused on minimally compliant standard efficiency equipment, resulting in long lead times for high efficiency units.
  • Contractor preferences for standard efficiency equipment due to easier procurement and service familiarity.
  • Refrigerant leakage, charge management, and a transition to low-GWP options.
  • A retrofit focus on equipment efficiency ratings over system optimization for efficiency.
  • Existing infrastructure limits.
  • Limited understanding of the scope of options, costs, and timelines associated with electrical infrastructure upgrades.
  • Low customer tolerance for downtime resulting from longer lead times for high efficiency equipment and electrical service upgrade timelines that may be required.

 

CalNEXT Related Projects

Decarbonized Designs for Complex HVAC Systems

High

CalNEXT has highlighted this technology family as having high impacts within the Technology Category.

Definition

These complex HVAC systems feature a holistic design, aimed at achieving high energy efficiency and low emissions in both new and existing buildings.

 

Research Initiatives
Research InitiativesPerformance Validation NeedsMarket Analysis NeedsMeasure Development NeedsProgram Development Needs

All-electric Design for New Construction

Medium NeedsMedium NeedsHigh NeedsMedium Needs

All-electric Design for Existing Buildings

High NeedsMedium NeedsLow NeedsLow Needs
Standardization for Interoperability of Component SystemsHigh NeedsMedium NeedsLow NeedsLow Needs

 

Opportunities

Emerging research in this technology family will yield strong energy efficiency savings potential and decarbonization by electrifying space heating, enabling energy recovery, and/or removing design barriers to decarbonization in large commercial buildings. Example opportunities include:

  • Field validation of the performance and cost effectiveness of electrifying “difficult” existing building HVAC systems, such as those using large boilers for hydronic space heating.
  • Assessment of electrical infrastructure impacts, especially in retrofit applications, including owner decision frameworks and phased retrofit pathways.
  • Technoeconomic assessment of benefits—such as floor area, operating cost, and total cost of ownership—relative to energy efficient and decarbonization solutions.
  • Development of design guides and tools that incorporate guidance on electrical upgrades, building envelopes, controls, and resilience to support market actors in electrifying new and existing buildings cost effectively.
  • Development of program strategies for overcoming technical and market barriers.

 

Barriers

HVAC designs have been evolving to meet the needs of a decarbonized building future. While technical understanding is growing, particularly in the new construction market, the existing building sector needs to overcome considerable technical and market barriers in transitioning these complex systems, such as:

  • The difficulty of cost-effectively retrofitting and electrifying HVAC systems in the existing building market.
  • Lack of understanding the appropriate program designs and deployment mechanisms to address technical and market barriers.

 

CalNEXT Related Projects

Commercial HVAC Installation, Operation & Maintenance

High

CalNEXT has highlighted this technology family as having high impacts within the Technology Category.

Definition

This technology family is focused on tools, techniques, and practices that improve the installation, operations and maintenance, and commissioning of HVAC systems, particularly for small- to medium-sized commercial buildings. The goals are to optimize the operational performance and efficiency of HVAC equipment at the time of installation through quality installation practices and commissioning, and to sustain optimal performance through continuous commissioning and maintenance.

 

Research Initiatives
Research InitiativesPerformance Validation NeedsMarket Analysis NeedsMeasure Development NeedsProgram Development Needs
Scalable technologies and approaches for quality installation, FDD, and continuous commissioningHigh NeedsHigh NeedsLow NeedsHigh Needs
Tools for continuous commissioning in small to medium buildings without BMSHigh NeedsMedium NeedsLow NeedsLow Needs

 

Opportunities

Improvements in installation practices, operations, and maintenance will result in energy savings, demand flexibility, and a reduction in refrigerant release emissions. A 2020 Lawrence Berkeley National Lab study found the median simple payback for existing building commissioning is less than two years. The continued advancements within the various normalized metered energy consumption programs mean there is the potential for program delivery improvements within this technology family.

Example opportunities for improving installation, operations, and maintenance of HVAC equipment include:

  • Low-cost approaches to existing building commissioning, continuous commissioning, and quality installation.
  • Tools to help facility managers and operators incorporate quality installation, operation, and maintenance of HVAC equipment into practice.
  • Tools and methods for identifying and mitigating refrigerant leaks.
  • Program design that helps improve the quality of installations, maintenance practices, and persistence of energy efficiency measures, which may include workforce development and technician training.

 

Barriers

To date, commissioning practice has been mostly driven by mandatory building code requirements or voluntary code requirements, such as California Green Building Standards (Title 24, Part 11) or Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design ratings. While research indicates that existing buildings still have significant cost-effective energy savings opportunities through proper installation and maintenance, some barriers have been identified that could hinder the adoption of the most efficient options, such as:

  • Operation and maintenance practices, which need to be tailored to the unique needs of each building.
  • High initial cost for small to medium buildings.
  • Lack of dedicated building staff to manage and maintain the HVAC systems and energy.
  • Lack of tools for buildings without building management systems, particularly for small- to medium-sized commercial buildings.

 

CalNEXT Related Projects

Hydronic Heat Pumps for HVAC

High

CalNEXT has highlighted this technology family as having high impacts within the Technology Category.

Definition

Commercial hydronic heat pumps serve space conditioning and service water needs for multifamily or non-residential buildings with large heating needs, such as a commercial kitchen or a large office building. These may be air-to-water heat pumps (AWHP) designed as boiler replacements or water-to-water heat pumps, such as heat recovery chillers, which can provide partial heating and cooling for facilities with simultaneous loads. This technology family is focused on advancements of the product itself.

Note: This technology family will not focus on the holistic system design or interoperability with other large components, which are spread across several technology families.

 

Research Initiatives
Research InitiativesPerformance Validation NeedsMarket Analysis NeedsMeasure Development NeedsProgram Development Needs
Heat Recovery ChillerHigh NeedsMedium NeedsHigh NeedsMedium Needs
Low-GWP Air-to-Water Heat PumpsHigh NeedsMedium NeedsHigh NeedsHigh Needs
Software tool development to support product specificationHigh NeedsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsMedium Needs
Test Method Development & ValidationHigh NeedsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsMedium Needs

 

Opportunities

Hydronic heat pumps can provide multiple hydronic services to a building to address efficiency and decarbonization market needs across the California multifamily and non-residential sectors. Opportunities for emerging technology research include:

  • Conducting a performance validation through laboratory applications testing and field demonstration of hydronic heat pump systems in new construction and existing buildings to address building owners’ performance risk concerns.
  • Collecting data to support the development of AWHP performance maps—and possibly future programs and building codes infrastructure.
  • Measure development for heat recovery chillers and AWHPs to support partial or complete fuel substitution in large buildings.
  • Conducting a cost-benefit analysis for retrofitting existing buildings with VRF with hydronic systems.
  • Developing multiple standardized system designs for optimal performance in selected applications.
  • Focusing on the development of drop-in packaged systems vs. custom-engineered solutions.
  • Creating specification templates and design guides to inform market actor procurement decisions.

 

Barriers

There are several barriers to hydronic heat pumps that could be addressed through emerging technology efforts:

  • While manufacturers have developed test procedures under AHRI 550/590, this test procedure has not been adopted by mandatory standards or voluntary standards, which limits the broad reach needed for this market adoption.
  • Load flexibility of multifunction AWHPs has not been explored. Controls that incorporate function switching, thermal energy storage (dedicated or domestic hot water volume), and load up/shed all require data, modeling, development, and testing.
  • Early adopter approaches are often custom-engineered, site-built systems. Packaged designs are needed for design, equipment, installation, and commissioning cost compression.
  • Building owner aversion to performance risks associated with newer technologies.

 

CalNEXT Related Projects

Residential Multifunction Heat Pumps

High

CalNEXT has highlighted this technology family as having high impacts within the Technology Category.

Definition

Residential multifunction heat pumps (MFHPs) use an efficient compressor system to serve both space conditioning and water heating requirements of a household, typically configured as a primarily hydronic system. MFHPs can come in multiple formats. Two-function (or combination) heat pump systems serve space heating and water heating demands. Three-function MFHPs provide space cooling in addition.

Note: This technology family is cross-listed with the Water Heating TPM.

 

Research Initiatives
Research InitiativesPerformance Validation NeedsMarket Analysis NeedsMeasure Development NeedsProgram Development Needs
Two-function: Water Heating & Space HeatingHigh NeedsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs
Three-function: Hot Water, Space Heating & Space CoolingHigh NeedsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs
Selection GuidelinesHigh NeedsHigh NeedsLow NeedsLow Needs

 

Opportunities

Residential MFHPs offer a novel pathway to decarbonization, providing an efficient alternative to existing gas-fired equipment or the current approach of multiple heat pumps (heat pump water heaters and a packaged central heat pump). MFHPs can potentially replace space heating, space cooling, and water heating with a single system, depending on the configuration and design. MFHPs have the potential to provide much higher total system benefits by extending the benefits of thermal storage to space heating (and potentially space cooling). In addition, the single heat pump may free up a home’s electrical panel capacity for other electrification uses and could be deployed with less overall refrigerant charge than current heat pump practices.

MFHPs are relatively new to the US market, and as a result, there are many opportunities to improve the understanding of their performance and impact on the residential sector. Opportunities for research include:

  • Laboratory testing of MFHPs to evaluate system performance in various applications.
  • Field demonstration or performance validation of MFHP in new construction and existing building applications across different climate zones.
  • Market assessment of MFHP for California homes, including cost and requirements associated with MFHP installation in new construction and existing buildings.
  • Assessment of the potential TSB value of MFHPs—including energy performance, demand flexibility, fuel substitution, and refrigerant emissions—compared with the efficiency of single-function separate HP, HVAC, and water heating equipment.
  • Assessment of the bill impacts and customer economics of MFHPs—including total costs of operation, operating costs under current rate structures, increased value of load shed, etc.—compared with the efficiency of single-function separate HP, HVAC, and water heating equipment.
  • Development of modeling tools to compare various MFHP types and guide program development, and/or support early adopting market actors.
  • Understanding workforce needs related to upselling practices to customers, comfort level of installation, and maintenance needs.
  • Validation of customer amenity and confirmation that proper hot water temperature and space temperatures can be met.
  • Field demonstration and cost-saving or bill performance validation for disadvantaged communities and hard-to-reach residences in a fuel-switch scenario where electrical panel capacity is commonly limited.
  • Market-assessment and field performance of “all-in-one” heat pumps and energy recovery ventilator products.

 

Barriers

As an emerging technology in the US market, there are many barriers to MFHP adoption that could be addressed. Understanding the performance of MFHPs in the context of US homes, the development of testing and installation standards, and the development of equipment selection guidelines are all necessary for understanding the efficacy of MFHPs in meeting California’s decarbonization goals and encouraging MFHP use in California. Specific barriers include:

  • Absence of standardized testing procedures for MFHP evaluation include heat recovery and simultaneous modes of operation.
  • Lack of MFHP product offerings compared to international markets, particularly those where hydronic heating is common.
  • Limited understanding of how well MFHP systems manage occupant thermal comfort.
  • Absence of a standardized installation procedure and contractor or installer knowledge.
  • Lack of understanding of MFHP efficiency and decarbonization opportunities (compared to independent systems).
  • Need for MFHP market assessment for California homes, including cost and requirements associated with new construction and retrofits.
  • Absence of MFHP modeling and design tools.
  • Lack of performance standards.
  • Lack of awareness, knowledge of benefits, and understanding of sentiment within disadvantaged and hard-to-reach communities for this technology group.
  • Retrofits may be constrained by the fact that water and space conditioning systems would rarely have to be replaced simultaneously for existing buildings.

 

CalNEXT Related Projects

Residential Air-to-Air Heat Pumps & Controls

Medium

CalNEXT has highlighted this technology family as having moderate overall impacts within the Technology Category.

Definition

These are advanced, high efficiency air-to-air heat pump (HP) units for use in the residential market, including ducted unitary HPs and ducted or ductless split systems. This technology family includes strategies to ensure adequate part-load performance (proper system sizing or use of variable-speed equipment); commissioning techniques; connected features that improve the installation, operation, and maintenance of residential systems; and deployment of smart thermostats to ensure proper control of variable speed systems and the ability to participate in demand response programs.

 

Research Initiatives
Research InitiativesPerformance Validation NeedsMarket Analysis NeedsMeasure Development NeedsProgram Development Needs
Integrated or Connected ControlsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs
Variable Capacity Heat PumpsHigh NeedsHigh NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs
Optimized Design and Quality InstallationHigh NeedsHigh NeedsMedium NeedsMedium Needs
Commissioning and Continuous MaintenanceHigh NeedsHigh NeedsMedium NeedsLow Needs

 

Opportunities

California’s residential HP market has seen significant activity as the market continues to take shape through large market transformation efforts, such as TECH Clean California. However, to maximize the overall impact of HPs, there needs to be a continued effort to ensure they operate efficiently while satisfying heating and cooling needs—as well as assurance that this technology is capable of providing grid services through flexing electric demand.

Example opportunities for increased efficiency and performance in the residential air-to-air HP market include:

  • Validating performance of variable capacity HPs.
  • Validating new digital commissioning tools in support of quality installations.
  • Supporting development of integrated, connected controls to optimize system efficiency, as well as energy cost and greenhouse gas savings.
  • Development of standards for assessment and design of ductwork for centrally ducted heat pumps (retrofit and new applications).
  • Development of smart thermostat technology that controls heat pump and auxiliary heating to optimize energy costs.

 

Barriers

Example barriers to increased adoption of residential air-to-air heat pumps include:

  • Compatibility concerns, high costs to purchase and install integrated controls for ductless mini-splits, and unknown return on investment.
  • Poor existing duct work that is not well suited for ducted heat pump retrofit applications.
  • Lack of appropriate controls for variable-speed equipment.
  • Lack of consumer awareness on availability of integrated controls.

 

CalNEXT Related Projects

Thermal Energy Storage

Medium

CalNEXT has highlighted this technology family as having moderate overall impacts within the Technology Category.

Definition

Commercial scalable thermal energy storage (TES) systems encompass heat energy-based systems in commercial buildings, which are capable of decoupling the coincident time of HVAC loads and HVAC energy input. Commercial scalable TES systems can reduce peak demand and shift energy inputs to a period when electric grid power is lower cost and less greenhouse-gas-intensive; they should be designed and operated for higher energy efficiency, e.g. shifting cooling loads to time periods with lower ambient temperatures. Scalable systems have already been implemented in commercial or residential building applications and therefore, could be implemented in larger sizes and higher percentages of building projects. Additionally, they have the potential for innovative improvements in terms of load shift, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness.

 

Research Initiatives
Research InitiativesPerformance Validation NeedsMarket Analysis NeedsMeasure Development NeedsProgram Development Needs
Hot Water Hydronic Thermal StorageMedium NeedsMedium NeedsHigh NeedsLow Needs
Cold Water or Ice Hydronic Thermal StorageLow NeedsMedium NeedsHigh NeedsHigh Needs
Thermal StorageMedium NeedsMedium NeedsHigh NeedsLow Needs
Building Mass Thermal StorageHigh NeedsHigh NeedsLow NeedsLow Needs

 

Opportunities

Thermal energy storage systems have been in commercial use for decades and present an opportunity for an increased scale of application for higher efficiency and decarbonization. Example opportunities include:

  • Storage to serve the non-coincident heating and cooling loads commonly found in larger HVAC systems with vapor compression heating and cooling equipment—e.g., air-to-water heat pumps, heat recovery chillers, etc.—that can support higher efficiency electrification.
  • Integration of heating and cooling loops with high mass building structure to reduce peak loads, equipment cost, and energy consumption.
  • Packaged product solutions and application guidance for designs, installers, and operators.
  • Refined phase change material choices and control strategies for cooling and heating to maximize usable storage and performance across seasons.
  • Storage to more efficiently and cost effectively serve water heating loads with heat pump water heating.
  • Positive impacts on multifamily buildings with central systems—these projects could be paired with zonal or neighborhood electrification efforts.

Prospective emerging technology studies should build upon the California IOU CASE team’s ongoing research on this topic, as well as pursue lab and field demonstrations with a viable path to scalability.

 

Barriers

Technical and market barriers for various TES technologies and system types include:

  • Controls and interoperability challenges, especially in retrofit applications. For example, in retrofit applications, TES may be difficult to integrate with existing HVAC systems, limiting the ability to coordinate charging, discharging, and HVAC operation to maximize performance.
  • Separate strategies required for heating vs. cooling load shifting. Heating and cooling loads often peak at different times and seasons, complicating TES control strategies and making it difficult to consistently optimize charging and discharging relative to time-of-use pricing. A different medium with a distinct solidification temperature may also be required.
  • Physical constraints of technology. The size and weight of TES systems may limit deployment at sites with structural load or space constraints, reducing the number of feasible applications.
  • Measurement and verification complexity for confirming savings. It can be complex to quantify bill savings and demand impacts, particularly for price-driven load shifting, which creates uncertainty for customers and utility programs.
  • Smaller building operators may find some of the advanced TES controls challenging to manage.

Thermal energy storage ideas and projects should identify barriers and provide strategies for mitigating or removing such barriers.

 

CalNEXT Related Projects

Active / Completed Projects

Please refer to the Emerging Technologies Coordinating Council for a complete list of active and completed projects to ensure your project is not duplicative.

Past TPMs